FACT-CHECK: Nigeria now has 14.4%, not 13.8 per cent drug prevalence as Peter Obi claims

By Ajibola Osungbohun

Claim:

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) Mr. Peter Obi claimed Nigeria now has 13.8 percent drug prevalence against the global average of 5 per cent.

Verdict

Mr. Peter Obi’s claim that “Nigeria now has 13.8 per cent drug prevalence against the global average of 5 per cent.’’ is incorrect. 

Full Story

On Tuesday, November 22, 2022, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr. Peter Obi made this claim (see video) during an interactive session with the Christian Association of Nigeria in Abuja on Tuesday.

In the course of the interaction , the presidential candidate lamented the prevalent challenges in Nigeria like unemployment, drug abuse and others and noted all these could be addressed by prioritising the production sector. 

In 2022, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, NDLEA, Brig. Gen. Mohamed Marwa (retd), said that Nigeria was number one cannabis-using country in the world. The Presidential Candidate of Labour Party (LP) Mr. Peter Obi believes this trend has a strong connection to poverty and unemployment.

For a clearer picture of the situation, Peter Obi supported his analysis with statistics when he claimed that “Nigeria now has 13.8 percent drug prevalence against the global average of 5 per cent.”

Apparently unhappy with this situation, Mr. Peter Obi promises to solve the problems by moving the country from consumption to production, a plan which he hopes will move people away from poverty. According to him, the more you pull people out of poverty, the more you address criminality. 

Yet the electorate need to know the veracity of this claim. Election campaigns are ongoing, and politicians are already on the prowl with statistics to influence opinion. For the purpose of sanitising the information ecosystem, we have decided to check the veracity of Mr. Peter Obi’s claim.

The Claim 

Nigeria now has 13.8 percent drug prevalence against the global average of 5 per cent.

Verification 

In verifying the level of truthfulness of this claim, we carefully sorted authentic and approved sources with the latest or last released of data and report on percentage of Drug prevalence in Nigeria. 

We conducted some key search from the National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) which collates and analyses drug use prevalence in Nigeria.

In its first-round report of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2017, the drug use prevalence in Nigeria stood at 14.2% 

Going forward, we conducted a google search to identify any recent survey that corroborates the NBS reports of 2017. Result eventually identified the 2018 report of  the Nigerian National Drug Use Survey which was supported by the United Nation Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

One of the key findings of the Survey report released in 2019 by the UNODC was that 14.4% (which was around 14.3 million) people had used an illicit drug in the previous year.

Courtesy: Drug Use in Nigeria 2018. UNODC 2019.

Similarly , the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Drug Use Report (2018) also put the drug use prevalence in Nigeria at 14.4 per cent.(range 14.0 per cent – 14.8 percent), representing approximately 14.3 million people. 

Courtesy NBS report, 2018

Very recently, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, NDLEA, Brig. Gen. Mohamed Marwa (retd), also corroborates the NBS report by making a reference to the 2018 UNODC report on drug prevalence and admits that the findings of that 2018 survey still stand to date as the reliable data on drug use prevalence in Nigeria. 

According to him, “before then, the drug use profile of Nigeria was sketchy. The survey gave us facts for the first time, and we got to know that Nigeria, as of 2018, had a 14.4 percent drug use prevalence’’.  

Conclusion:

The reports of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) 2018, the United Nation Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) World Drug Report 2019 and confirmed by the Chairman of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) in November 2022, the drug use prevalence in Nigeria is estimated at 14.4 per cent, (around 14.3 million people) contrary to the assertion by Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party. 

Verdict

Mr. Peter Obi’s claims that “Nigeria now has 13.8 per cent drug prevalence against the global average of 5 per cent.’’ is incorrect.